Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension triggered by the introduction of a new 28-article proposal for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been contained. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its retaliation: another massive barrage of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare
The sequence of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: hopeful statements are released from multiple capitals. Significant resources is devoted on restraining particular approaches. By night, Moscow clearly shows the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "resolution".
Nighttime Reality
As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from across the border, a ability enabled by up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, military aircraft that had been dispatched to counter approaching guided weapons streaked across the sky – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by Western partners.
Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: defensive missiles deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably supplied through Western nations. Every firing shakes the surroundings, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: perhaps the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, preventing destruction from devastation and another blackout.
Ongoing Risks
Following this, a large-caliber weapon fired at a drone close by, part of a defensive team – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Regrettably, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its destination.
Intermittently, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: multiple fatalities, devastation and infrastructure problems in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a need that regional partners are evidently unprepared to replace in the immediate future.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The detailed framework from American leadership provoked deep reactions, controversy and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.
Every new initiative from American administration adheres to the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, undoubtedly, endure.
Tactical Assessments
It is easy to blame particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. Washington operates on a assumption familiar among experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration assumes that it is unrealistic to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the land that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.
The challenge is that while accepting these circumstances, American administration does little to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from believing that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its benefit in the near future.
Divergent Views
Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its supporters are nearing depletion. Their reason to agree to terms that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the result.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding people and territory but avoiding a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its benefit.
Present Conditions
Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not move to homefront challenges. And although their objective will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will modify their basic position.
These conflicting dynamics are driving the talks.
Assessment and Future
It took a just a single week to kill the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.
While new plans based on previous concepts are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off negotiation assaults from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and demonstrate certain reluctance to modify developments, if they stand together and enhance their military capacity at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on sustained allied backing.
