A decade after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that polarised the nation and triggered disorder, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there will be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unity has masked the absence of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or campaigners want to engage with even the essentials. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unity or the status quo. They composes two articles that seek objectivity in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and social data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates range over national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters report they favour unity but oppose increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified arguments, he commented. "One side will succeed here and the other side will in the end lose but all factions has possesses something to gain from the alternative arguments."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must join the discussion, said O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
